I think one of the best things about being a football fan is getting to see the kids that you followed in college smash into the NFL with immediate success. We love seeing rookies come out and give the experienced veterans a run for their money. Maybe it has something to do with the adages about youth vs. wisdom? I’m not sure, but I do know that there are plenty of kids in training camp right now that have the potential to be breakout stars in 2018.
Current Odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year
I first sifted around before finding this Bovada review where I checked to make sure I would find the odds I needed (not some English Football site). Then I popped over and quickly found what I was looking for; updated odds for the top candidates in Las Vegas to win offensive rookie of the year.
• Saquon Barkley +140
• Baker Mayfield +400
• Josh Allen +900
• Josh Rosen +900
• Sony Michel +1000
• Rashaad Penny +1400
• Calvin Ridley +1600
• Derrius Guice +1600
• Sam Darnold +1600
• Royce Freeman +1800
• Lamar Jackson +2000
• Everyone Else 33 to 1 or worse.
Offensive Rookie of the Year tends to go to the player with outstanding stats, which also helps lead his team to a winning season (usually). With this in mind, it makes me wonder who will pull it off. Saquon Barkley is the odds-on favorite over in New York, but I don’t know.
I understand why the odds are in his favor. He seems to be the most set up to have an immediate impact. The offensive line has gotten some major upgrades and it is very likely that Saquon will get 250+ touches and possibly 40 or 50 passes out of the backfield. His numbers could be excellent.
Ordinarily, you would say that a rookie tail back’s greatest threat to success is the offensive line and the defenses in his division. But his biggest worry is Eli Manning. The guy has been absolutely terrible. If he has another ship-sinking season, he is likely to take Saquon Barkley and his hopes at OROTY down with him.
I just don’t see Baker Mayfield winning OROTY. He has the talent, but unfortunately, he’s on a team known affectionately as the Cleveland Browns … How many games did they win last year? Oh yeah, that’s right … none. Zip. Zilch. Not even one. So, unless he leads the Dogs to eight wins, and isn’t splitting too much time with Tyrod Taylor, it just isn’t going to happen for him.
QB vs. RB
Most so-called experts are of the mind that a QB has the most potential (other than Saquon Barkley) to win it this year. But I say that is a bunch of hogwash. There is a ton of QB talent in this draft class, but most of them are not set up for massive success during their debut campaigns.
If any QB has an outstanding season, it will be Josh Rosen. He is the most NFL ready coming straight out of the draft and he is on a Cardinals team that somehow managed to go .500 last season with terrible quarterback play. But again, he will be sitting behind Sam Bradford. If Bradford of the busted knees clan manages to stay healthy, Rosen will only get put in as a back-up occasionally to get some playing time and experience.
In my opinion, the running backs out of this class are in much better positions to create an immediate impact on their teams. Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, and Royce Freeman are all going to be impact players.
If I had to choose a ‘sleeper’ who I think has a real shot at winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, it would be Roll Royce Freeman. The kid is a beast. He has the size, the strength, the durability, and the vision to have a massive impact over in Denver. Plus, the Broncos don’t have any other legitimate alternative. Freeman is used to getting a ton of touches with little rest —coming from the high-octane Oregon program. So he will be able to handle being in a system that is currently in the top-10 for touches given to their lead back.
Freeman will have a chance to rack up TDs as well because he won’t be a situational back; he’ll get the ball mid-field, red zone, and goal line. Not to mention that the AFC West isn’t known for having the stoutest run defenses.
It is going to be a fun ride this season. There is so much talent to look out for, and a few of us are going to get lucky and win the lottery with the rookies on our fantasy rosters.